Scientists: This summer is 'what global warming looks like'
by SETH BORENSTEIN,AP Science Writer
Jul 03, 2012 | 3513 views | 23 23 comments | 7 7 recommendations | email to a friend | print
The Squirrel Creek Fire burns along the ridge line of Sheep Mountain on Monday, July 2, 2012, southwest of Laramie, Wyo. Crews in Wyoming faced erratic winds and dry, fire-fueling conditions Monday as they fought three large forest fires that have forced hundreds of evacuations across the state. (AP Photo/The Casper Star-Tribune, Alan Rogers)
The Squirrel Creek Fire burns along the ridge line of Sheep Mountain on Monday, July 2, 2012, southwest of Laramie, Wyo. Crews in Wyoming faced erratic winds and dry, fire-fueling conditions Monday as they fought three large forest fires that have forced hundreds of evacuations across the state. (AP Photo/The Casper Star-Tribune, Alan Rogers)
slideshow
WASHINGTON (AP) — If you want a glimpse of some of the worst of global warming, scientists suggest taking a look at U.S. weather in recent weeks.

Horrendous wildfires. Oppressive heat waves. Devastating droughts. Flooding from giant deluges. And a powerful freak wind storm called a derecho.

These are the kinds of extremes climate scientists have predicted will come with climate change, although it's far too early to say that is the cause. Nor will they say global warming is the reason 3,215 daily high temperature records were set in the month of June.

Scientifically linking individual weather events to climate change takes intensive study, complicated mathematics, computer models and lots of time. Sometimes it isn't caused by global warming. Weather is always variable; freak things happen.

And this weather has been local. Europe, Asia and Africa aren't having similar disasters now, although they've had their own extreme events in recent years.

But since at least 1988, climate scientists have warned that climate change would bring, in general, increased heat waves, more droughts, more sudden downpours, more widespread wildfires and worsening storms. In the United States, those extremes are happening here and now.

So far this year, more than 2.1 million acres have burned in wildfires, more than 113 million people in the U.S. were in areas under extreme heat advisories last Friday, two-thirds of the country is experiencing drought, and earlier in June, deluges flooded Minnesota and Florida.

"This is what global warming looks like at the regional or personal level," said Jonathan Overpeck, professor of geosciences and atmospheric sciences at the University of Arizona. "The extra heat increases the odds of worse heat waves, droughts, storms and wildfire. This is certainly what I and many other climate scientists have been warning about."

Kevin Trenberth, head of climate analysis at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in fire-charred Colorado, said these are the very record-breaking conditions he has said would happen, but many people wouldn't listen. So it's I told-you-so time, he said.

As recently as March, a special report an extreme events and disasters by the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned of "unprecedented extreme weather and climate events." Its lead author, Chris Field of the Carnegie Institution and Stanford University, said Monday, "It's really dramatic how many of the patterns that we've talked about as the expression of the extremes are hitting the U.S. right now."

"What we're seeing really is a window into what global warming really looks like," said Princeton University geosciences and international affairs professor Michael Oppenheimer. "It looks like heat. It looks like fires. It looks like this kind of environmental disasters."

Oppenheimer said that on Thursday. That was before the East Coast was hit with triple-digit temperatures and before a derecho — an unusually strong, long-lived and large straight-line wind storm — blew through Chicago to Washington. The storm and its aftermath killed more than 20 people and left millions without electricity. Experts say it had energy readings five times that of normal thunderstorms.

Fueled by the record high heat, this was one of the most powerful of this type of storm in the region in recent history, said research meteorologist Harold Brooks of the National Severe Storm Laboratory in Norman, Okla. Scientists expect "non-tornadic wind events" like this one and other thunderstorms to increase with climate change because of the heat and instability, he said.

Such patterns haven't happened only in the past week or two. The spring and winter in the U.S. were the warmest on record and among the least snowy, setting the stage for the weather extremes to come, scientists say.

Since Jan. 1, the United States has set more than 40,000 hot temperature records, but fewer than 6,000 cold temperature records, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Through most of last century, the U.S. used to set cold and hot records evenly, but in the first decade of this century America set two hot records for every cold one, said Jerry Meehl, a climate extreme expert at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. This year the ratio is about 7 hot to 1 cold. Some computer models say that ratio will hit 20-to-1 by midcentury, Meehl said.

"In the future you would expect larger, longer more intense heat waves and we've seen that in the last few summers," NOAA Climate Monitoring chief Derek Arndt said.

The 100-degree heat, drought, early snowpack melt and beetles waking from hibernation early to strip trees all combined to set the stage for the current unusual spread of wildfires in the West, said University of Montana ecosystems professor Steven Running, an expert on wildfires.

While at least 15 climate scientists told The Associated Press that this long hot U.S. summer is consistent with what is to be expected in global warming, history is full of such extremes, said John Christy at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. He's a global warming skeptic who says, "The guilty party in my view is Mother Nature."

But the vast majority of mainstream climate scientists, such as Meehl, disagree: "This is what global warming is like, and we'll see more of this as we go into the future."
Comments
(23)
Comments-icon Post a Comment
dbeall
|
July 06, 2012
The simple fact is that the parishioners of the First Church of Global Warming have been caught lying too many times to ever be believed. They have also relied entirely too heavily on computer models in which THEY input worst case scenarios to surprisingly find the results they wish to find. Of course, we also have a strange migration of temperature measuring stations disproportionately into warmer climates, as well as locating many of them on heat islands, like next to a fire barrel or an air conditioning exhaust.

But what really does it for me is that no matter what the weather, it is touted as being consistent with global warming- more snow, less snow, more rain, less rain, stronger storms, weaker storms, etc; it doesn't matter.

All this is allegedly caused by a gas that makes up less than 1/2 of 1% of the atmosphere, when water vapor, which is much more concentrated and plays a much larger role in the greenhouse effect is given no role according to the global warming alarmists.

Put bluntly, it's all an extreme exaggeration or an outright lie.
TomatoMan
|
July 06, 2012
I can't wait for global warming. I could stay in my pool all year long.
KingPellinore
|
July 06, 2012
Obviously, I know more than the scientist who has dedicated his life to studying the climate.

I will now present my conflicting opinion based on anecdotal evidence and a thorough misunderstanding of climate patterns.
Letsbefriendly
|
July 05, 2012
My wife likes to watch Deadliest Catch. They are saying that they had the worst ice they have ever seen. Closing down crabbing in the Bering sea.
appalucy
|
July 07, 2012
Sorry, but there isn't any proof of global warming from a TV show comment.
tedb3rd
|
July 05, 2012
Yeah, and a few years back in Winter when the high was like, 18 degrees for about a month... and we had that span where every state in the continental US had snow on the ground.. Yup... Global warming. ...Funny how it only occurs in the Summer. Hippies. The earth has been getting warmer since the ice age. And guess what, there were a few years between the last ice age and the invention of fuel-burning engines.

If you're so concerned, turn off your AC to conserve electricity and give that $ to me. I'll go buy an SUV to go buy some steaks. Make hippies AND a few vegetarians happy.
tman61
|
July 04, 2012
Global warming is being pushed by those getting federal grant money to study it and most importantly by those business tycoons wanting to set themselves up as Green Barons and gain wealth like oil barons have now.

I would like INDEPENDENT scientists to study this with no bias and no financial interest in the outcome. The fact is we dont know if this is taking place OR if we can do anything about it even if it is.

Some independent competent science would be nice. None exists so far.
AncientRoman
|
July 03, 2012
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html

The website for the national climatic data center in Asheville, NC. All the information you'll ever need, and none of it secret.
Rosebush
|
July 03, 2012
Didn’t the Towers’ family keep weather records for Rome/Floyd Co from the late 1800’s until Billy Towers’ death? I believe a cousin of his continued the practice until his death just a few years ago. They use to occasionally mention the information in the RN-T. Does anyone know if these are family or public records?
anabelle_lee
|
July 03, 2012
You're kidding right. Those are only yearly averages for the month. That is not the information that I am talking about. The page or pages that I used to visit had highs and lows for any day for any place that you typed in. That temp you just quoted for 1980 was an average. An average of 102 for a whole month would clearly have the temps that I remember (I was there) of 106 during the day. June and August that year also had temps above 100.

I wouldn't trust that info too much either. It shows no snowfall in 2010 and 2011 which I'm sure even you remember. Also the information stops at 2010. Why is that. With the information that you could access a few years ago, you could do your own research if you wanted and maybe even find out for yourself if this global warming thing is a hoax or not.

This information is somewhere, I'm sure. It's just harder to find. It just like google newspaper archives which was a great idea until they killed it. How can anyone ever have too much information.
Almost_Anonymous
|
July 03, 2012
Of course I'm not kidding. I'm reading.

The column says "Highest temperature". Go read it again. The highest temperature that month (July 1980) was 102.

The 7th column is labelled "Average Maximum Temperature". It was 92.5 that month.

See for yourself.

http://weather-warehouse.com/WeatherHistory/PastWeatherData_Rome_Rome_GA_July.html

As for 2010 and 2011 snowfall, there was none that month. I don't any either.
Almost_Anonymous
|
July 03, 2012
That should read:

"As for 2010 and 2011 snowfall, there was none that month. I don't remember any either."
Trelicious
|
July 03, 2012
There will ALWAYS be a summer that is hotter than previous summers. If there weren't every summer would be the same. Next year, when it's a cooler summer than this year, neo-environmentalists will shrug it off as the cyclical nature of weather. Every time a heat record is broken, they will point to the nearest coal-fired energy plant with a disapproving glare.

anabelle_lee
|
July 03, 2012
In 1980 we had a summer like this with temps above 100 almost all summer long. We had a month like this a few years ago. You could check this out but they no longer have that info online anymore. I used to look it up regularly-then one day it just wasn't there anymore. The government decided that the public doesn't need that info. I never thought i would see the day that politics would be involved in weather
Almost_Anonymous
|
July 03, 2012
Here's historical weather data; doesn't look very secret:

http://weather-warehouse.com/WeatherHistory/PastWeatherData_Rome_Rome_GA_June.html

http://weather-warehouse.com/WeatherHistory/PastWeatherData_Rome_Rome_GA_July.html

http://weather-warehouse.com/WeatherHistory/PastWeatherData_Rome_Rome_GA_August.html
Almost_Anonymous
|
July 03, 2012
Here's more weather history:

http://www.weather.com/weather/wxclimatology/monthly/graph/30161

107 was the previous annual high before we hit 108.
Almost_Anonymous
|
July 03, 2012
annabelle: the high in July 1980 was 102. It was below 100 in June and August.
cynicist
|
July 03, 2012
I clearly remember 107 days back in the 70's. Keep in mind that many of these heatwave records that are currently being broken all across the US were records held since the 1870's...long before the Industrial Revolution ever began.

Global Warming is a total farce.
Almost_Anonymous
|
July 03, 2012
There was only one month in the 1970s with a high over 100 (July 1977)-- it was 104.
cynicist
|
July 03, 2012
Then it MUST be Global Warming!
Almost_Anonymous
|
July 03, 2012
Cynicist write, "Global Warming is a total farce."

Let's hope so!

If there's even a 10% chance that it's not a farce, that's very troubling -- kind of like Dick Cheney and the One Percent Doctrine.
Almost_Anonymous
|
July 03, 2012
I don't ever remember any days hotter than 103 degrees -- does anyone else?

Until the last several years, it seemed like we might get a day above 100 every 2 to 3 years.

Supposedly there was one day above 105 about 80 years ago.

Multiple days over 103 is amazing. Anything over 105 is crazy.

What do others remember -- especially going back more than 20 years?

Also, what about snow? Is it just me or does it seem like it snows a lot less than it used to? Leaving aside the freak 1993 storm, it seemed there was snow just about every winter.
Sassy13
|
July 03, 2012
Or....it could be SUMMER!
Postings are not edited and are the responsibility of the author. You agree not to post comments that are abusive, threatening or obscene. Postings may be removed at our discretion.